“I will instruct my Treasury Secretary to declare China a currency manipulator the day I take office” promised Donald Trump on October 22.
Calculated in square metres of fabric, UK total apparel imports in the last six months of 2016 (after the Brexit referendum and its subsequent sterling devaluation) fell just 0.3% over the same period in 2015.
It’s almost impossible to summarise the dispute between China and most other major trading nations at the WTO.
China’s income from apparel exports falls dramatically in the second half of 2016. Especially in exports to the UK.
The US dollar value of China’s apparel exports fell year on year by 11.4% in the last six months of 2016: an abrupt worsening of the 4.5% fall in the first six months.
Seemingly endless January trade-related government announcements in the US and UK lacked a single detail businesses could use for planning.
Donald Trump announced on January 14 his abandonment of a central campaign pledge about China.
Though the world’s business press reported in mid-January that Chinese manufacturing costs grew sharply in December 2016, costs for Chinese apparel and textile makers grew far less. In November 2016 – the latest data available – the price per square metre of Chinese apparel arriving in the US was 9.1% lower than a year earlier.
After years of misconceived forecasts it will soon collapse, China’s domination of global apparel exports faces a serious threat – from the Chinese government.
It’s a safe bet that few readers have paid much attention to the idea of “destination-based” profit taxes. They need to start doing so: right now.
Korean exports to China fell 10.9% in the first year of a free trade deal between the two countries. Chinese exports to Korea fell just 4.8%.
I think many of the alleged uncertainties observers forecast for 2017 are badly misconceived.
How seriously should brands and retailers take reports that Trump will slap extra duties on Chinese imports – and China’s almost hysterical response to those reports?